Natural England - What climate change might happen in the future?
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What climate change might happen in the future?
What climate change might happen in the future?
It is impossible to predict with certainty what climate change might happen in the future. But it is possible to make projections of what might happen under different economic and social scenarios.
How can projections be made?
We can assess how greenhouse gas emissions will change in different scenarios and what this will mean in terms of changes to the climate. These assessments are made using mathematical models of our climate system. The more sophisticated of these take into account known levels of uncertainty, so that we can end up with a range of projections for each scenario.
A lot of scenario development and climate change modelling has been undertaken around the world and as part of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) process. The projections made by the models used by the IPCC in 1990 are consistent with current climatic conditions.
Global projections
Globally, the IPCC scenarios in 2007 suggest that:
- Greenhouse gas emissions are likely to rise by between 25 and 90 per cent up to 2030, although emissions are currently rising at levels that are higher than the most extreme scenario.
- By the end of the 21st century, global temperatures are projected to rise by between 1.8 and 4ºC.
- There will be a loss of summer sea-ice by the end of the century, although this could happen a lot sooner.
- It is very likely there will be an increase in heat waves and heavy rainfall events.
Projections for the UK
The UK Climate Impacts Programme made the following projections for the UK in 2002:
- The average annual temperature is projected to rise by between 0.5 and 1 ºC by 2040 and by between 1 and 5 ºC by 2100.
- Warming is likely to be greater in the south-east than north-west.
- Warming is likely to be more pronounced in the summer and autumn than winter and spring, with an increase in very hot summer days, ie days higher than 3 ºC above average.
- By 2100, there is likely to be up to 50 per cent less rainfall in the summer months, but 30 per cent more rainfall in the winter, with more frequent heavy rainfall events.
- Snowfall amounts are likely to decrease.
- Sea levels could have risen by as much as 80 cm (2.6 feet) by 2100.
- Storm surge events could be twenty times more frequent by 2100.